The high temperatures registered in the third week of July caused record demand peaks in Spain and Italy on July 19 and increased demand in other markets. In France, the weekly production of solar electricity was the highest in history, but in most markets the production of solar and wind energy decreased. All these factors, together with the increase in carbon dioxide prices, caused electricity market prices to rise compared to the previous week’s prices in most markets.
In the third week of July solar electricity Weekly production in France reached 650 GWh, which is a historical record for the French market. Compared to the previous week, production increased by 4.7%.
In the other analyzed markets, solar energy production decreased. The Italian market fell the least, 0.8%. In the Spanish market, production fell by 4.3% and in the Portuguese market by 5.8%. The largest decrease was in the German market, which was 10%.
For the week of July 24 AleaSoft’s energy forecastThe solar energy production forecast indicates an increase in the Spanish market, while the German and Italian markets are expected to decrease.
During the week of July 17 wind energy production increased in the Italian and Spanish markets compared to the previous week. The highest growth was in the Italian market, 40%, while in the Spanish market the growth was 4.9%.
In the markets of Germany, France and Portugal, wind energy production decreased during the same period. The biggest decline was recorded in Germany and France, both 19%. In the Portuguese market, wind energy production was 11% lower than the previous week. On Thursday, July 20, 45 GWh was registered, which is the highest daily production in July so far.
In the last week of July AleaSoft’s energy forecastThe forecast for wind power production shows an increase in the markets of Italy, Germany and France. The Spanish and Portuguese markets are expected to decline.
Electricity demand
During the week of July 17 electricity demand increased in most analyzed European markets compared to the previous week. The largest increase was 6.6%, which was recorded in the Italian market. In addition, on Wednesday, July 19, the highest demand since the end of July 2015 was measured, 1179 GWh. On the same day, the second highest temperature of 2023 was registered in Italy.
The market area with the second largest increase in demand was the Netherlands, where the growth was 6.3%. The increase was 0.4% in the Spanish market and 2.9% in the UK market. Demand in Spain reached 787 GWh on Wednesday 19 July, the highest since the end of January 2021, and it was mainland Spain’s highest average temperature of the year so far.
albeit average temperatures the week decreased in some markets compared to the previous week, the high temperatures registered on several days of the week favored an increase in demand. In the case of France, the increase in demand was due to the return to work after the holiday on Friday, July 14, the French National Day.
Demand in Belgium, Germany and Portugal decreased during the review period. The largest decrease was recorded in the Belgian market, which decreased by 6.1%. In the German market, demand fell by 3.2% and in the Portuguese market by 2.0%.
According to the demand forecasts made for the last week of July AleaSoft’s energy forecastdemand is expected to decrease in most of the main European markets analyzed, with the exception of Portugal, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
European electricity market
In the week of July 17, the prices of most European electricity markets were analyzed AleaSoft’s energy forecast increased compared to the previous week. There were exceptions Nord Pool market From the Nordic countries with a 40 percent decrease and MIBEL market Spain and Portugal, and it fell slightly, resulting in a 1.6% decline and a 2.1% decline. The biggest price increase N2EX on the market In Great Britain, 18 percent. In other markets, prices rose by 2.0% in the year IPEX market in Italy and 9.2 percent EPEX SPOT market From the Netherlands.
In the third week of July, the weekly average values ​​were below €90/MWh in almost all European electricity markets. The exception is the Italian market, where the average price was the highest, €116.31/MWh. The lowest weekly average was in the Nordic market, €23.49/MWh. In the other analyzed markets, the prices were between €78.37/MWh from the Belgian market and €89.00/MWh from the UK market.
Hourly prices on Sunday 23.7. from 14:00 to 17:00 a price of €0.00/MWh was registered for the Spanish market. This also happened on the same day in the Portuguese market from 16:00 to 17:00 and on July 17 in the Nordic markets from 14:00 to 15:00. In the Belgian and Dutch markets, negative hourly prices were recorded on Monday, July 17.
On Sunday, July 23, the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets registered negative prices, which were affected by the strong wind and solar energy production of renewable energy, especially in Germany, and the decrease in demand during the weekend.
The lowest hourly price, -€52.65/MWh, was reached on the Dutch market on Monday, July 17. from 12:00 to 13:00. On the other hand, on Wednesday, July 19, between 19:00 and 20:00, a price of €205.00/MWh was reached on the Italian market, which is the highest on this market since April.
During the week of July 17, demand increased, wind and solar energy production decreased in most analyzed European markets, and carbon dioxide emissions increased.2 The prices of emission rights led to an increase in the prices of the European electricity market. In addition, even though the average price of gas was lower than the previous week, weekly prices recorded an increase throughout the week.
AleaSoft’s energy forecastAccording to the price forecast, in the fourth week of July, prices may decrease in most European electricity markets, due to a decrease in electricity demand in some markets and an increase in wind energy production in Germany, France and Italy.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil front month futures ICE market, on Monday July 17 registered a weekly minimum settlement price of $78.50 per barrel, which was 1.0% higher than the previous Monday. In the following sessions of the third week of July, settlement prices were higher, but remained below 80 dollars per barrel. On Friday, July 21, however, the weekly maximum settlement price of $81.07 per barrel was reached. This price was 1.5% higher than the previous Friday.
In the third week of July, expectations of lower supply levels in the coming months contributed to an increase in Brent oil futures prices. The rise in prices was also influenced by the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the announcement of measures to promote the development of China’s economy. On the other hand, in the fourth week of July, possible interest rate increases in the United States and the European Union may have a lowering effect on prices.
What comes to TTF gas On Monday, July 17, the forward month futures prices on the ICE market continued the downward trend of the previous week, and the weekly minimum settlement price was registered at €25.10/MWh. This price was 17% lower than the previous Monday and the lowest since June 6. But most of the sessions in the third week of July registered price increases. As a result, on Friday 21.7. the weekly maximum settlement price of €28.85/MWh was reached. This price was 11% higher than the previous Friday. However, the average for the third week of July was still 1.8% lower than the previous week.
Increased demand for electricity generation due to high temperatures and reduced wind energy production pushed up TTF gas futures prices in the third week of July. European reserve levels are high, however, and the supply of gas from Norway increased after the maintenance work was completed.
What comes to C/O2 emission rights futures in EEX on the market The December 2023 reference agreement was registered on Monday 17 July. weekly minimum settlement price €86.49/t, which was 0.2% higher than the previous Monday. In the third week of July, futures prices rose. As a result, the weekly maximum settlement price of €91.43/t was reached on Friday, July 21. The price was 6.3% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since the fourth week of June. Expectations of a lower bid in the August auctions pushed up prices in the third week of July.
