PV production capacity is predicted to more than double by 2024, led by China, but oversupply is also expected, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global solar power generation capacity will almost double next year, reaching nearly 1 TW, according to the IEA. That expansion would be enough to meet the agency’s annual net-zero demand for 2050, which projects solar deployment to be nearly 650 GW in 2030 and nearly 310 GW in 2024. However, the industry is struggling with oversupply.
In 2022, the world’s solar power manufacturing capacity will increase by more than 70% to nearly 450 GW, and China will account for more than 95% of the new additions to the supply chain. Between 2023 and 2024, global solar power generation capacity is expected to double, with China again accounting for more than 90 percent of the growth.
India’s Production Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme and the US Inflationary Reduction Act (IRA) have led to an increase in new solar manufacturing projects. Between November 2022 and May 2023, more than 120% of such projects were announced, potentially creating national supply chains of more than 20 GW of capacity in each region.
In Europe, the share of new production capacity is only 14 percent of the announced projects after August 2022. The goal of the EU’s Green Deal Industrial Plan and Net-Zero Industry Act is for Europe to produce 40 percent of its solar electricity targets by 2030, but specific incentives are not currently included. The high prices in the industry have also increased the manufacturing costs of photovoltaic devices in EU countries.
In Europe, less than 1% of manufacturing capacity is reserved for new cells, while the share of ingots and wafers is 9% and polysilicon production is only 6%. Integrated production facilities produce three or more components, but almost 80% of their reported capacity does not include specific polysilicon production. In addition, the capacity of the new module assembly plants, which is close to 30 GW, does not match the reported capacity of other components, especially cells and polysilicon. As a result, these new factories still have to import cells and other components from China.
New PV manufacturing announcements in India, the US and Europe are 30 GW in polysilicon and 100 GW in module assembly.