A new study by the Central Electricity Authority estimates the cheapest and optimal generation capacity mix for India’s projected electricity demand in 2029-30.
The Central Electricity Authority, a department under the Ministry of Electricity of India, has conducted a study to determine India’s optimal generation capacity mix for 2029-2030. It found that a generation capacity of 777 GW, with 62.4% (485 GW) of renewables, supported by 41.65 GW/208.25 GWh of battery energy storage systems, is the most cost-effective and operationally feasible solution to meet the country’s electricity needs. .
The renewable energy mix includes 53.9 GW of large hydro, 18.9 GW of pumped storage, 292.6 GW of solar, 99.9 GW of wind, 14.5 GW of biomass and 5.3 GW of small hydro. The remaining capacity consists of 251.6 GW of coal and lignite-based capacity, 24.8 GW of gas-based capacity and 15.48 GW of nuclear power capacity.
The study used the latest computer Generation Expansion planning model, which took into account the predicted regional peak electricity demand and the need for electrical energy for the years 2029-30. To determine the optimal combination, it took into account the various technical and economic parameters associated with different power generation and storage technologies.
According to the report, the share of installed thermal capacity is expected to decrease to 35.5 percent of the total installed capacity in 2029-30, while it was 57 percent in March 2023. On the other hand, the share of installed capacity based on renewable energy, including large hydropower plants, is predicted to increase to 62.4 percent in 2029–2030, while it was 41.4 percent in March 2023. Total non-fossil capacity, including nuclear, is estimated to be about 64 percent (500.6 GW) of total installed capacity in 2029-30.
As of March 2023, India’s installed capacity was 415.4 GW, of which 236.68 GW from thermal sources (211.8 GW coal + lignite and 24.8 GW gas), 6.78 GW from nuclear power and 171.8 GW from renewable energy sources (42.6 GW , 6.8 GW). solar energy, 42.6 GW wind power, 4.7 GW small hydropower, 4.8 GW pumped storage, 10.8 GW biopower).