According to Clean Energy Associates’ (CEA) latest PV pricing report, solar module prices will be pressured this year by growing industrial capacity, with capacity doubling in the ingot/wafer stage and possibly quadrupling for polysilicon by 2027.
The planning consultant said that in 2023-2024, TOPCon prices will remain higher than PERC.
“Because many new cell lines are generated that need to be calibrated, this limits the growth of TOPCon availability,” CEA said.
However, it added that it expects the price gap between the two technologies to narrow from 2024 “when TOPCon becomes the default utility scale module”. Nevertheless, the company noted that it expects some price differential between TOPCon and PERC, “as the increasing adoption of TOPCon will cause PERC to be offered at an increasingly discounted price until it is retired.”
The corresponding graph in the report shows that by the first quarter of 2025, monofacial-based TOPCon modules will cost the same as bifacial double-glass PERC modules with 210 mm cells. Between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, module prices in China will decrease by an average of 6%, according to the report.
According to CEA, global solar power manufacturing capacity throughout the supply chain will grow rapidly between 2022 and 2027, when capacity will double in the ingot/wafer phase and possibly quadruple for polysilicon. This capacity remains heavily concentrated in China, CEA said.
The oversupply of equipment, measured by the industry’s nominal production capacity compared to new facilities, is expected to grow from 25% in 2022 to 100% in 2027. In other words, the entire industry can produce twice as much demand. to predictions.
By 2023, global module production capacity is estimated to exceed 800 GW per year, while global installations are expected to remain above 300 GW. By 2027, module production capacity could exceed 1,000 GW per year, while plants should be close to 500 GW.
The most immediate impact of the capacity increase on the market is the tripling of polysilicon capacity from 2022 to 2024, which is based on the new or already under construction start-up and ramp-up phase.
CEA’s forecasts are the result of a specially developed modeling system that provides independent market information on changes in global supply chains and accurate forecasts of delivery price scenarios for technologies, materials, manufacturing areas and target markets, as well as supply and demand forecasts.